Research

Much of my work, past and present, can be found on my repec site.  And like many bespoke sites like this, a bit of googling probably makes them largely redundant.

Work in progress:

‘A case against a four per cent inflation target‘ with Engin Kara.  Revise and resubmit at the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

‘Optimal monetary policy, the zero bound and learning’ with Petr Harasimovic.  Looking at whether ‘lower for longer’ policies that obtain as optimal at the zero bound and under RE survive as optimal when we drop RE and use a least squares learning scheme for expectations.

‘Risk news shocks and the business cycle’, with Gabor Pinter and Kostas Theodoridis.  [Slide show for Ghent workshop on empirical macro] [Revise and resubmit at Journal of Banking and Finance]

‘Estimating time-varying DSGE models using minimum distance methods’, with Liudas Giratis, George Kapetanios and Kostas Theodoridis.  [Revise and resubmit at the Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics].

‘Self-fulfilling recessions at the zero lower bound’, with Charles Brendon and Matthias Paustian’, [Revise and resubmit (for about 457 years) at the Journal of Monetary Economics] [previous version circulated as ‘The pitfalls of speed-limit interest rate rules at the zero lower bound’.]

Publications in peer-reviewed journals:

‘Inference on multivariate stochastic time varying coefficient models’ with Liudas Giraitis and George Kapetanios. [Forthcoming in Journal of Time Series Analysis].

‘Inference on stochastic time varying coefficient models’ with Liudas Giraitis and George Kapetanios, [ Journal of Econometrics]

George Kapetanios and Tony Yates, (2012),‘Evolving UK and US macroeconomic dynamics through the lens of a model of deterministic structural change’, Empirical Economics, [forthcoming].

Timothy Cogley, Bianca de Paoli, Christian Matthes, Kalin Nikolov and Tony Yates (2011) ‘A Bayesian approach to optimal monetary policy with parameter and model uncertainty’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol 35, no 12, pages 2186-2212.

[various others, to be completed – see cv for details]

Selected other publications and unpublished papers

‘Monetary policy delegation and equilibrium coordination’, with Andrew P Blake and Tatiana Kirsanova.

[to be completed]